On Sunday, Sept. 22 at 8:20 p.m. ET, the Kansas City Chiefs will face the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our computer model projects a win for the Falcons — see below for a complete breakdown, regarding the point spread, total and final score.

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From an offensive standpoint, the Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL with 26.5 points per game. Meanwhile, they rank 20th in points allowed (386 points allowed per contest). With 16 points per game on the offensive side of the ball, the Falcons rank 24th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 11th, allowing 19.5 points per contest.

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Falcons vs. Chiefs Predictions and Picks

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Falcons Betting Info

• The implied probability of a win by the Falcons based on the moneyline is 41.7%.
• Atlanta has covered once in two chances against the spread this season.
• The Falcons have been an underdog by 3 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
• Atlanta and its opponent have not yet hit the over in 2024.
• Falcons games average 44.5 total points, two fewer than the total for this matchup.

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Chiefs Betting Info

• The Chiefs have an implied moneyline win probability of 62.3% in this matchup.
• Kansas City has won one game against the spread this season.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 3-point favorites.
• This season, games featuring the Chiefs have hit the over twice.
• Chiefs games average 47 total points per game this season, 0.5 more than the over/under for this matchup.

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Falcons vs. Chiefs 2024 Scoring Insights

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